After the prices of cotton which is the main raw material of textile reduced the lowest level of last six years, it was explained that downtrend would keep on. Cotton prices which have caused unbalance in the market, according to the last report of International Cotton Advisory Committee gave, stability in prices is expected. As it is stated in the report that the cotton import of China in 2011/ 2012 which has the most effective factor on cotton prices raised 5,3 million tons by increasing more than double when compared to the previous period and it passed the rest total import volume of the world with 4, 4 million. But in the oncoming periods, Chinese import decreased due to the imports which increased out of China. And 2014/ 2015, import out of China is waited to increase to 5, 9 million tons by raising 6%, but with this 45% it will not be able to balance Chinese import which regressed to 1, 6 million tons.
Around the world, import is expected to fall 7, 5 million tons with 12% in 2015. In spite of that, it is predicted that with the import of out of China which increases 6, 1 million tons by raising to 3% in 2016, world cotton import will get a little bit well and increase to 7, 7 million tons by increasing 2%. Due to the fact that the main import cotton of Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia depends on spinning sector, they will be the biggest third importers after China in 2016. Import of Bangladesh is predicted to be a little bit lower than 1 million ton in 2015 and will remain stable in 2016. And the import in Vietnam is predicted to reach 927.000 tons with 6% increase and the import in Indonesia is predicted to reach 800.000 tons with 4% increase in 2016. USA export which has high demand in 2015 is guessed to remain firm at 2, 3 million tons in 2016. On the other hand, Indian export is expected to regress 1 million ton by diminishing 50% in 2015 but it can reach 1, 2 million tons by getting well partially.
World Cotton Manufacture
With the 7% regression of world cotton field due to the low prices in 2015, it is estimated to be reduce 31, 3 hectare and as a consequence of this, world cotton manufacture is expected to regress 23, 9 tons with 9’ decline. In China, it is expected that a lower allowance announce which is done for 2015 will cause 3, 8 million hectare with 12% decline on cotton field. The manufacture in China in 2016 can fall 5, 4 million tons. And the field in India reached the record dimension with 12, 3 million hectare in 2015 but it is expected to regress to 11, 6 million hectare by falling 5% in 2016. Average yield application in last three years will be resulted with the regression with 6, 4 hectare by falling 5%. The field in United States of America, due to the low international prices and bad weather conditions, it is expected to fall to 3, 3 million hectare with 15% regression. When a 912 kg/ hectare yield is considered, production in USA is expected to regress to 3 million dollars with 15% decline.
World Cotton Consumption
World cotton consumption increased to 24, 3 million ton by raising 3% in 2015 period and it expected to increase to 24, 9 million ton by showing a 2% of increase in 2016. With the domestic cotton prices in China, terminating of the reserve policy of China and starting for a policy with is more directed to marketplace, it regressed under 100 cent/ lb. in the first five months of 2015 when compared to 2014 with average of 139 cent/ lb. When it is thought that the prices will be same in 2016, cotton consumption is possible to remain stable in 7, 7million ton in 2016. On the contrary, consumption is expected to maintain its growth in nearby countries. Consumption in Indıa which is the second biggest lint consumer is predicted to increase to 5, 4 million tons with 3% raise in 2016. Despite the strong competition at thread import, consumption in Pakistan is expected to increase to 9, 1 million tons with 3% raise in 2016.
World ending stocks are estimated to regress to 20, 8 million tons by showing 5% decline in 2016 for the first time since 2011. Although Chinese ending stocks are expected to fall 11, 8 million tons with 6%, it will still have the 56% of the world stock at the end of 2015/ 2016. After increasing to 9, 4 million tons with 19% in 2015, ending stocks which are considered out of China are expected to regress 9, 1 million tons with 3% in 2016.
